The main reason for the decline in nickel prices was twofold: First, at the macro level, US President Trump signed the president’s memorandum, which will impose large-scale tariffs on goods imported from China, raising worries about the trade war and increasing market risk aversion; Second, in terms of industry, the increase in nickel mines in Hong Kong is expected to continue. The domestic stainless steel market continued to be weak and the decline in dominant stocks at home and abroad declined. As far as the direct impact of the trade war on nickel prices is concerned, we say the impact is negligible. We can think of trade warfare affecting nickel through stainless steel, but we observe historical data and found that the amount of stainless steel exported to the United States accounts for total exports. The proportion is small, and it has been showing a downward trend in recent years, from 77,500 tons in 2013 to 27,900 tons in 2017. Therefore, with the gradual retreat of the impact of the trade war in the later period, the base metals are expected to rebound, but nickel industry demand will become the main factor to suppress the rebound of nickel prices. So for this nickel price drop, investors are advised not to blindly buy the bottom.
